EB-1A and EB-2 NIW in 2026: Approval Rates, the Visa Bulletin, and Which to Choose

According to analysts, the EB-1A approval rate in 2026 fell to 32.2% (Q3 of fiscal year 2026, April–June), while EB-2 NIW approvals are recovering, at 55.3%. Meanwhile, the October 2026 Visa Bulletin kept EB-1 current for Rest of World applicants and retrogressed EB-2 for Rest of World: the final action date is January 1, 2025. Put simply, EB-1A today is the fast but stricter category, while NIW is more accessible but comes with a wait of roughly a year and a half or longer.

In short:

• October 2026 Visa Bulletin (start of fiscal year 2027): EB-1 Rest of World — Current (China and India have cutoff dates), EB-2 Rest of World — final action 01JAN25, dates for filing 15MAR26, EB-3 — 15MAY24 / 01AUG24.
• According to analysts who processed USCIS statistics, EB-1A approvals have declined for six consecutive quarters: from 74.7% (Q1 FY2025) to 32.2% (Q3 FY2026).
• NIW is recovering: 55.3% in Q3 FY2026, after a low of 35.7% in Q4 FY2025.
• O-1 holds at around 91% — a practical "bridge" while the green card petition is being prepared.
• As of October 15, 2026, the November bulletin has not been published; the State Department warns that Rest of World dates may continue to be adjusted.

October 2026 Visa Bulletin: what the dates show

The Visa Bulletin is a monthly publication of the U.S. Department of State. It shows whose turn for an immigrant visa or green card has come up in each category. The October issue is especially important: a new fiscal year (FY2027) begins on October 1, and the annual quotas reset.

Below are the dates for Rest of World applicants, meaning all countries except those listed separately (China, India, and a few others). Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus all fall under Rest of World.

Source: Visa Bulletin for October 2026, travel.state.gov. Dates as of October 15, 2026.

In the bulletin text, the State Department states directly that several Rest of World categories have "retrogressed" to keep visa issuance within quarterly and annual limits, and that the situation is being "continually monitored." The bulletin gives no projection for the coming months.

Important: as of October 15, 2026, the November Visa Bulletin has not been published. Until it is, the October dates apply. Any "November predictions" online are estimates, not official data.

Two charts: Final Action and Dates for Filing

The bulletin contains two charts. The Final Action Date is the date at which a final decision can be made on a case and a green card issued. Dates for Filing is an earlier threshold: it allows you to submit documents (for example, an I-485 inside the U.S. or a package to the NVC), but approval must wait until the final action date is reached.

Which chart USCIS accepts for employment-based I-485 filings is decided separately each month. According to AILA and EIG Law, in October 2026 USCIS is accepting employment-based I-485s under the Dates for Filing chart. Before filing, double-check this on the USCIS page "Adjustment of Status Filing Charts from the Visa Bulletin."

Priority date and retrogression, in plain terms

The priority date is your place in line. For EB-1A and NIW, it is generally the date USCIS received your I-140 petition. Each month the bulletin announces a "cutoff date": if your priority date is earlier, your turn has come.

Retrogression is when the cutoff date moves backward instead of forward. This happens when demand in a category exceeds the number of visas available for the year. People who were "current" yesterday can find themselves waiting again.

Example (hypothetical): an engineer filed an NIW, and USCIS received his I-140 in March 2025. His priority date is March 2025. The final action date in October 2026 is January 1, 2025. His date is later, so he cannot be issued a green card yet, even if his I-140 is already approved. Under the Dates for Filing chart (March 15, 2026), he may be able to file an I-485 if USCIS allows that chart in the current month.

For a new applicant filing an NIW in October 2026, the gap between their future priority date and the current final action date is about 21 months. This is not a forecast of the wait — dates can move both forward and backward — but the order of magnitude is clear: a year and a half or longer.

EB-1A approval rate in 2026: what the statistics show

USCIS publishes data on petition decisions, and several law and analytics firms convert it into quarterly approval rates. Below is the series Manifest Law published on September 9, 2026, citing the USCIS "Citizenship and Immigration Data" section.

Important: these are secondary data — from analysts who processed USCIS statistics. We were unable to verify each value directly against the original USCIS table for Form I-140. Use these figures as an indicator of the trend, not as a precise probability for any specific case.

How to read these numbers

First, the approval rate is an average across all filed cases, including very weak ones. A strong, well-documented petition and a long-shot petition end up in the same statistic. So 32.2% does not mean you have a one-in-three chance.

Second, the trends in the two categories have diverged. EB-1A has declined for six consecutive quarters — a consistent signal that USCIS officers are scrutinizing evidence of "extraordinary ability" more strictly. NIW has recovered for three consecutive quarters after its trough in Q4 FY2025.

Third, O-1 holds steady at around 91%. It is a nonimmigrant category, but for many people it becomes a practical first step.

What this means in practice: fast and strict, or more accessible but with a wait

Putting both charts together, the picture looks like this:

EB-1A is the category for people with national or international recognition. If the petition is approved, there is no wait: with lawful status in the U.S., you can file the I-485 concurrently with the I-140 or right after approval. The price of that speed is a high evidentiary bar and increasingly strict review. Learn more about the category on our page EB-1A — visa for individuals of extraordinary ability.

EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) is the category for professionals with an advanced degree or exceptional ability whose work matters to the United States. The job offer and labor certification requirements are waived "in the national interest." Judging by the trend, NIW is currently easier to get approved, but after I-140 approval a Rest of World applicant will have to wait for their date. Learn more on the EB-2 NIW page.

EB-1A or NIW: which to choose in 2026

There is no universal answer: the choice depends on your profile, your timeline, and how much getting a green card quickly matters to you. Below is the simplified framework we use to start the conversation with a client. Discuss your final strategy with an immigration attorney.

Who EB-1A tends to fit

• You already have recognition that is visible from the outside: it is confirmed by independent sources, not just your own statements.
• Your achievements meet at least three of the ten criteria listed in the USCIS regulations and add up to a coherent story that you are among the top of your field. We break down the criteria in our article "EB-1A criteria".
• Speed matters to you: for example, your status is expiring, or your family is waiting on a decision.

Who EB-2 NIW tends to fit

• You have an advanced degree (a master's or higher, or a bachelor's plus progressive experience) or exceptional ability.
• Your work or project has substantial importance to the U.S., and you can show you are well positioned to carry it out.
• Your industry recognition does not yet reach the EB-1A level, and a wait of a year and a half or longer is acceptable to you.

For a detailed comparison of the two categories, see our article "EB-1A vs. EB-2 NIW".

When O-1 is a sensible "bridge"

The O-1 visa is a nonimmigrant visa for individuals of extraordinary ability. It requires a U.S. employer or agent petitioner, but by the same data its approvals hold at around 91%. O-1 is worth considering if:

• you need to be in the U.S. and work lawfully right now, but your green card petition is not ready yet;
• your profile is strong, but under current conditions you want to further strengthen your evidence for EB-1A;
• you have filed an NIW and are waiting for your date, and your current status is running out.

Can you file both EB-1A and NIW?

Yes, these are two separate I-140 petitions, and you can file both. This strategy sometimes makes sense for borderline profiles: EB-1A offers a shot at a fast green card, while NIW is a backup with a higher likelihood of approval. The downsides are double the preparation and cost, plus the need for both petitions to be factually consistent. Whether this makes sense in your case is decided individually with an attorney.

Example (hypothetical): a researcher with publications and citations but no major awards is in the U.S. on F-1 with OPT. It is important for him not to lose status. One possible approach is to file an NIW to "lock in" a priority date and, in parallel, obtain an O-1 to cover the waiting period. EB-1A is not ruled out — he can return to it once his recognition becomes more evident.

Where RFEs come in, and why one is not a verdict

An RFE (Request for Evidence) is a USCIS letter in which the officer explains what was missing for approval. Given the current strictness on EB-1A, RFEs have become a common part of the process. An RFE is not a denial: the applicant has a deadline to respond and close the gaps.

A good RFE response is not "one more stack of documents" but a targeted point-by-point answer to every issue the officer raised. That is why strong petitions are built from the start to leave minimal grounds for a request. And if an RFE does arrive, it is important to set priorities correctly and not contradict what has already been submitted.

An example from our practice: a real EB-1A case approved after an RFE, followed by green cards. The circumstances of each case are individual, and the outcome of one case does not guarantee the outcome of another.

Important: the decline in EB-1A approvals is a reason to prepare your petition more carefully, not to give up on it. But if your profile clearly falls short of the bar, an honest assessment before filing will save time and money.

EB-2 NIW backlog and retrogression: what to do if you have already filed

If your NIW I-140 has already been filed or approved and your priority date is later than January 1, 2025, retrogression means waiting. Key points to keep in mind:

• Your priority date is preserved. An approved petition holds your place in line.
• Watch both charts. If you are in the U.S. and USCIS allows Dates for Filing, an I-485 filing may be possible with a priority date earlier than March 15, 2026.
• Maintaining status while you wait is a separate task. The EB-2 backlog does not extend your current visa. You need a plan for staying in status — for example, through O-1 or another suitable status.
• Revisit your strategy. If your profile has grown noticeably while you wait, discuss with an attorney whether it is time to file EB-1A, where there is no wait.

What to do now

1. Find your priority date (on your I-140 receipt notice) and compare it with the October dates for Rest of World: EB-1 — Current, EB-2 — 01JAN25 / 15MAR26.
2. Check on the USCIS website which chart the agency accepts for I-485 filings in the current month.
3. Wait for the November Visa Bulletin, and do not make decisions based on unofficial "predictions."
4. Assess your profile realistically: does it meet the EB-1A criteria with room to spare, or is it closer to NIW?
5. If your U.S. status ends before your date becomes current, discuss a "bridge" through O-1 or another option.
6. If you are considering filing both petitions, coordinate with an attorney on how they will align factually.
7. If you receive an RFE, do not delay: start working on it immediately, because the response deadline is limited.

How M&M can help

• Profile assessment. Take our free assessment — we will look at which category your profile fits best: EB-1A, NIW, or O-1 as a first step.
• Document preparation. M&M Document Preparation prepares I-140 petition packages, RFE responses, and supporting documents, working alongside licensed partner attorneys who are responsible for legal strategy.
• Tracking your place in line. We help you monitor the Visa Bulletin and the deadlines in your case. You can reach us on our contact page.

Sources

• Visa Bulletin for October 2026 — U.S. Department of State
• USCIS Q3 FY2026 Approval Data — Manifest Law, September 9, 2026
• FY 2026 Q2 Approval Rates: EB-1, O-1, EB-2 NIW — immi-usa
• October 2026 Visa Bulletin Released — EIG Law

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. M&M Document Preparation is not a law firm. Information is current as of October 15, 2026.